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The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has faced accusations of currency manipulation from the U.S., particularly regarding its interventions to stabilize the Swiss franc during the financial crisis. While the SNB maintains that its actions were necessary for price stability, it acknowledges the ongoing risks of real estate bubbles and the need for banks to prepare better for liquidity crises. Additionally, the SNB has adjusted its investment portfolio to exclude companies that conflict with Switzerland's values, reflecting a cautious approach to environmental and ethical considerations.
Raiffeisen has revised its GDP growth forecast for the Swiss economy downwards due to heightened risks from US tariffs and a strong franc. The bank noted a significant rise in Swiss exports to the USA, particularly in pharmaceuticals, but anticipates a correction following this surge. For 2025, GDP growth is now projected at 0.9%, down from 1.3%, with similar reductions expected for 2026.
The Swiss franc has surged over 7% against the USD since early April, driven by soft inflation and expectations of further action from the SNB, which may cut rates to negative territory at its June 19 meeting. Meanwhile, the euro's strength is under scrutiny amid economic challenges and anticipated ECB rate cuts. EUR/USD has retreated from its April peak, reflecting shifting market sentiment influenced by trade dynamics.
Inflation in Switzerland has unexpectedly halted, attributed to falling oil prices and a stronger franc, with analysts predicting potential negative inflation in the coming months. The Swiss National Bank faces increasing pressure to maintain its inflation target, with speculation about lowering the guide rate to 0.0 percent during its upcoming review. While low inflation is not ideal, experts suggest it stems from external factors, and negative interest rates may be the only viable option for the SNB moving forward.
The chairman of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, has dismissed calls from cryptocurrency advocates to include bitcoin in the bank's reserves, citing concerns over market liquidity and significant value fluctuations. Despite a referendum campaign aimed at changing the Swiss constitution to mandate bitcoin holdings alongside gold, Schlegel emphasized that cryptocurrencies do not currently meet the institution's reserve standards.
Environmentalists protested at the Swiss National Bank's AGM, urging it to divest from companies linked to ecological damage, particularly in the Amazon and Cerrado regions. Activists criticized the bank's investment strategy, calling for stricter exclusion criteria and greater transparency regarding its holdings in firms that harm the environment. They argue that the SNB's current approach is insufficient and risks future generations' well-being.
Cryptocurrency advocates are urging the Swiss National Bank to diversify its reserves by purchasing bitcoin, citing global economic instability and the weakening of traditional currencies. A referendum campaign aims to amend the Swiss constitution to mandate bitcoin holdings alongside gold. Despite the push, the SNB remains cautious due to concerns over price volatility and security risks.
Bitcoin's role is shifting from being viewed as "digital gold" to a key market performance indicator, according to Swiss financial institutions. Its volatility and close ties to risky assets have diminished its status as a safe haven, prompting experts to reassess its value in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Despite this, Bitcoin remains a crucial benchmark for market sentiment, influencing the performance of altcoins and the broader crypto market.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) remains cautious about negative interest rates, viewing them as a last resort to maintain price stability amid potential US sanctions on foreign exchange interventions. While the SNB's balance sheet has expanded significantly due to these interventions, recent reductions in foreign currency holdings have strengthened the Swiss franc. The central bank is closely monitoring inflation trends, with a key interest rate currently at 0.25%, and may consider further easing if deflation risks increase.
The Swiss National Bank has reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%, continuing its cycle of cuts amid low inflation and rising risks. The inflation forecast for 2025 has been slightly adjusted to an average of 0.4%. The SNB is closely monitoring inflation trends and may consider further cuts if disinflation persists, with negative rates remaining a potential option.
Martin Schlegel
People
The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
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